Written by: Associate Professor. Hussein Bassim Abdulameer
Head of Political Studies Department/Center for Strategic Studies / University Of Karbala
December 2024
For the Kurds, the “modern state” in Syria and Iraq has been and continues to be like an iron cage that imprisons them.
Maintaining the “modern state” in Iraq and Syria is one of Turkey’s major geostrategic goals in order to permanently limit the Kurds’ ambitions to establish a greater Kurdistan state in the region and confine them to the modern states that already exist there. The emancipation and independence of the Kurds in Syria currently pose the biggest threat to Turkish national security because of the country’s substantial Kurdish minority, which is estimated to comprise around 20% of the total population.
Even so, Erdogan’s foreign policy had been founded on gambling to weaken Turkey’s Arab neighbors—especially Syria—by openly meddling in their domestic affairs and supporting the armed opposition. which warns that Erdogan’s foreign policy toward Syria may eventually lead to the fragmentation of the “modern state” in Syria into new cantons based on sub-identities, which grants the “Kurds of Syria” their freedom and independence. This encourages the Kurds of Turkey to strive for the same outcome, which would be disastrous for Turkey if its fuse is ignited within the geography of Turkey’s Kurds, not only endangering Turkish national security but also putting an end to the “modern state” in Turkey itself, which includes ethnic minorities other than the Kurds, such as the Armenians, Greeks, and others!!
Given the preceding, Turkey’s geostrategic interest in the territorial integrity of Syria and Iraq—as Erdogan has declared—is a genuine Turkish geostrategic priority rather than merely rhetoric for the media.
The issue, however, is not with Turkey’s actual geostrategic objectives and priorities; rather, it is with Erdogan’s immediate and direct interests, which led him to take the chance of undermining these nations—particularly Syria—in order to increase Turkish influence in their decision-making process.
As a result, Erdogan’s avarice and dancing on fire and flame to further his government’s immediate and direct interests—in Syria specifically—came as a gamble at the expense of Turkey’s geostrategic priorities in the survival and continuity of the “modern state” in Syria, which were significantly undermined by Erdogan’s government’s immediate interests. The Zionist entity, which aims to divide the neighboring modern states into small, dispersed cantons based on sub-identities and ongoing conflict among themselves in a way that improves the entity’s national security, may help Syria’s “modern state” break up into new cantons tomorrow. Therefore, if it occurs and its infection extends to the Kurds of Turkey and its fuse is ignited in their geography, the result will be devastating for Turkey and will only lead to the “death of the modern state in Turkey.”