Author: Lecturer. Methaq. M. Al-Issa
Political Studies Department / Center for strategic studies.
Translated by: Hiba Abbas Mohammed Ali
Reviewed by: Lecturer. Hussain B Abdulameer
According to international and regional developments and political changes that have occurred for the constants of some countries in the region and the world towards the regional issues, especially the Arab ones, Such as the changes that have taken place in some Arab and Gulf countries towards the Syrian crisis and the position of the Syrian regime in general, and the shifts towards the Yemen crisis, as well as the US administration moves in the region, both with regard to withdrawal from Syria and the redeployment of its forces in Iraq or with regard to the moves of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his Middle East tour and the announced and undeclared results raises many questions about the position of Iraq from those changes and regional developments, both in terms of its position on the policy of axes in the region or with regard to the nature of dealing with that policy ?
According to the assumptions of realism trends, some observers see that Iraq will be the center of the regional-international conflict among the United States and its allies in the region and between Iran and its political and military wings, especially as there are those who greatly enhance the chances of that assumption, the Iraqi political arena still represents a fertile environment and a focal point of international and regional interlocutors, and that the state of political instability is still the permanent status that adorn the Iraqi political scene, and there are many problems that the Iraqi government and parliament were not overcome yet, with regard to the repeated failure to complete the formation of the government or with regard to the government’s program in general in addressing the economic reality and service. Moreover, successive Iraqi governments have not been able to eliminate the phenomenon of arms proliferation outside the framework of the government, and have no clear plan to undermine the armed factions and the inventory of arms in the hands of State. All these files will put the Iraqi government in a critical angle to the internal and external public opinion, the United States of America began to redeploy its forces in Iraq in anticipation of a larger role equivalent to the Iranian role in Iraq, and the (corruption and political instability and the fight against terrorism) files will be justified scenes present in the American political mind In order to impose its presence in Iraq.
As a result, Iraq’s position will be weak and will not rise to the level of ambition towards the developments in the region, whether related to its internal situation or changes and developments in the regional arena. This will put the Iraqi decision-maker in critical positions towards the policy of the regional axes and the international alliances that Washington seeks with the support of its allies. That refers to the two axes (American and Iranian) and their role in shaping the upcoming political events in the region.
Certainly, the position of the Iraqi decision maker in the choice and parallelism between the two axes will be very difficult, as Iran still has strong (political and military) arms in Iraq. Moreover, there is considerable trade and economic cooperation between Iraq and the two countries. On the other hand, there are significant trends of the current US administration towards Iraq, and the recent US military moves, is a clear and explicit evidence on the status of Iraq in the next US strategy. The US administration wants to restore Iraq and reduce the Iranian influence in according to the directions of American institutions, so that will lead us to the article hypothesis and the nature of the Iraqi government’s dealing with parties of this crisis.
Within this framework some observers believe that the Iraqi decision-maker cannot determine the course of the Iraqi government’s attitude towards either of the two axes, especially in light of internal divisions and the nature of their dealing with political developments and domestic and foreign issues. But other observers see that the Iraqi government is able to deal wisely and professionally with the moves and objectives of the US administration in Iraq and between the Tehran project in Iraq and the region in general; and by matching between its internal objectives and its foreign projects. (Yes) Washington and Tehran may be trying to transfer compilation to Iraq, especially after the USA failure in facing Tehran in Syria, but even we admit with that hypothesis, We see that the events will depend on the positions of the Iraqi government, the latter can balance between two axes in according to their internal interest; through, inter alia:-
- Unify the internal positions about the foreign issues, especially with regard to official positions toward the US presence in Iraq, meaning that the Iraqi government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are the parties who authorized to dealing with such events away from political and partisan statements that reflect the personal temperaments of political parties and forces and the positions of armed factions.
- Completing the formation of the Iraqi government, and unify attitudes towards internal issues away from partisan and political positions.
- Neutralize the Popular mobilization forces and its various factions and its security leadership over the course of the political events and the necessity of activating the necessary articles of the constitution, especially those relating to the inventory of arms by the state hands.
- Addressing the internal crises through responding effectively to the demands of the demonstrators and activating the current government program with regard to its service program and the elimination of unemployment.
- To strengthen the bonds of cooperation and joint coordination between Iraq and its regional environment, and convergence of views on existing and potential challenges and ways of confrontation available.
In parallel, the countries of the region must realize that the geographical and historical facts have proved that the strength and territorial integrity of Iraq and the stability of its political regime based on the peaceful transfer of power is a guarantee for the security and stability of the region. And that the attempt to subject it to the policy of regional and international axes does not serve the stability of the region; because Iraq consist a permanent balance between the countries of the region and remains a key pillar of the regional system, Thus, its restoration of its natural role will contribute significantly to the stability of the regional security of the region in general.