US withdrawal from Iraq , the third scenario

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Writer: Assist professor Muayed Jabbar Hassan/ political studies department

Translated by: Hiba Abbas Mohammed


on the issue of American withdrawal from Iraq;Experts and observers of international affairs in Iraq are divided into two groups; the first is public interest, and the second is expediency.However, the author takes a third view and assumes that there is a third situation: critical state (between stability and chaos), one of its main pillars is:


  • Security: The positive side of withdrawal is that security decisions will be Iraqi. And it’s a positive force, adding to the resolve and planning of our heroic security forces. But it shows that the Iraqi army lacks intelligence support, which the US military has.
  • Economic: There is no counterpart to Iraq’s economic model, it’s a mix between government intervention and economic freedom. And the US withdrawal will weaken the economic freedom.
  • Political: The influence of regional powers is clear in the formation of Iraq’s political forces, as well as the United States puts its conditions directly by its officials statements or indirectly threatening to remove the political cover of Iraq’s political process, which is not fully accepted by all sectors of Iraqi society.
  • International relations: Iraq once again accepted as a member of the international community”even its narrow Arab circle”was done with a United states green light. And the withdrawal would lose Baghdad it’s a global acceptance, while putting political decision-making once again in the hands of Iraqis; without the influence of any party whose intervention could harm Iraq’s best interests.


Targets for achieving this vision:

  • Independence is not a gift, but a right that a people with wise leadership gains from other countries and superpowers. Therefore, the Iraqi people and government must be eligible for independence, American forces must withdraw, and foreign influence must end, because it is not in the national interest.
  • Fearing from withdrawal is not a cause, and the trivialization is not realistic, so it requires Iraq’s wisdom and determination, and putting boundaries about relations with a former accusation forces to be a friendly forces.
  • Full United States withdrawal must be accompanied with the gradual development of Iraq’s security, political and economic capabilities to meet responsibilities and challenges and to ensure the achievement of higher national goals and interests.
  • Certainly some influential international powers are seeking to accelerate withdrawal, although an alternative to Iraq is not yet ready because of the nature of the competition and the crowding out of adversaries in order to make way for them. This is not in Iraq’s interest. While withdrawal is important but the right timing is more important than withdrawal itself .