Dept. of the Strategic Studies / Strategic Studies Center
Asst. Prof. Haider Khudayer Murad
Translated by: Dr. Tawfiq Ahmed
June 2020
Water case represents the most strategic challenges that face the Arabic National Security in the current time, in addition to facing terrorism and intellectual extremism and spreading covi-19 crisis that spreads all over the world due to several considerations such as dominating the desert nature of some Arab world states from one side, and that the main source of the most important Arabic rivers are found in foreign countries from the other side. This includes Nile river which forms the main source of Egypt and Sudan water which emanates from Ethiopian plateau in Ethiopia from tropical lakes plateau ( Victoria lakes ) in Uganda, Tanzania, and Burundi which all are non-Arab states; the Tigris and Euphrates rivers which represent the main sources of water in Syria and Iraq emanate from the mountainous highlands in the north of Anatolia in Turkey and it is also non-Arab state.
The fallouts of water case negatively affects the Arabic National Security in a dangerous way when the source countries start constructing a group of dams on the rivers that outpour in the Arab countries such as Ilisu dam on Tigris river and Renaissance Blue Nile where water is used as a way of political press by the hand of source countries against Arab countries with the presence of regional and international expansions and intervenes, the matter that increases the crisis and challenges. Renaissance dam crisis which raised lastly between Egypt, Ethiopia represents a clear example and sample of this dangerous challenge that faces Arab nation and its National Security in the current time.
In the first of May 2010, Ethiopia announced building a dam that might decrease 12 shares from Nile water. This dam lies on the Blue Nile in Benishangul – Gumuz region close to the Ethiopia -Sudan borders, about twenty to forty k.m.
In November 2010, dam designing was completed, and in 31 of March 2011 a contract of 4. 8 billion dollars , without competitive tenders, was given to the Italian company Salini costruttori, from that time Ethiopia started working in the dam, where the 3 minister councils called ” the grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam “. Ethiopia designed this project in order to produce electricity power and to export it to the neighboring countries without taking into account the effects on Egypt and Sudan states.
This project will certainly give Ethiopia the force to control water of Blue Nile branch going to these two countries.
The dam has great damage on the Egypt economy. It is , no doubt, that it will lessen the water amount that Egypt gets from Nile, for Egypt highly depends ( 96%) on Nile water for drinking and irrigation, as well as its natural and historical rights in this river according to treaties of 1929 and 1959 that did not give Egypt the agreement right concerning the project on the source countries, but it has the veto right to protest against projects that affect the water amount going to Egypt.
Egypt does not protest against filling the dam tanks, but it protest against filling them at the same time, for this will surely leads to sharp increase its share of water for many years, the matter that affects directly lives of million Egypt who depend mainly on Nile water for drinking and irrigation. The principle agreement framework” signed in 23 of March 2015 by presidents of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. The fifth item states the necessity of agreement to the rules of filling the dam and the annual operation before starting filling , in order not negatively affect the outpour countries tanks. It also states in the tenth item that when negotiations failed and the parties couldn’t solve problems; so, in this case they can resort to a mediation. Ethiopia retreating and boycotting the last round of discussions held in Washington in 27 and 28 of March 2020 declaring the start of filling Renaissance dam in next July; this change the crisis to a new dangerous stage. As a result, Ethiopia government aggressively talked about this file, that was through the minister of foreign affairs, Gedu Andargachew who mentioned that they will start filling the tanks within four months pretending that the dam, earth, and water belong to Ethiopia; so, there is no power that prevents us from completely Renaissance dam. After this Ethiopia aggravation, the Egypt president, Abdul Fettah Al Sisi met the high leadership army force, and emphasized the necessity of having the highest degrees of carefulness and caution and fighting preparation, reaching to the highest readiness to carry out any task that they may be asked to implement to protect the national security within the current challenge in the region. Some considered, through its declarations, the meeting a message ( though it wasn’t mentioned in the statement) to Ethiopia that the force option could be present in front of the Ethiopia obstinacy.
The Ethiopian chief of staff, lieutenant general , Adam Mohammed declared that the army is ready to stop any military attack against Renaissance dam as well as attacking the source by the same way. This speech was during his visit, with a number of high army leaders to the Renaissance dam site, to the west of the country.
The speech about the war with increasing of talk aggravation between Cairo and Addis Ababa considered as a critical issue and the international community should pay much attention of these developments and to realize the matter seriousness and sensitivity to Egypt especially with approaching of July when Ethiopia is expected to start filling the dam without signing an agreement with Egypt and Sudan in this respect.
Renaissance dam crisis between Egypt and Ethiopia witnessed dangerous hasty development. It is a crisis of political and strategic frame with great importance. The global high powers should effectively move to find fair solutions and equations to this crisis before surprising with a conflict that could be the most dangerous and influential in the twenty first century . thus, water case represents a serious challenge to the Arabic national security in the current time that has equal danger to terrorism challenges and other rising crisis in the Middle East.
