Writer : Assistant professor Methaq. M. Al-Issawi
Center for strategic studies/ International Studies Department
Translated by: Hiba Abbas Mohammed Ali
The Iranian nuclear deal signed in 2015 between 5 + 1 countries in the era of US President Barack Obama is one of the most complex global files and is further complicated by strained relations between the US and Iran. This complexity would probably be reflected in the nature of the “indirect” talks between the parties, especially after the attack on the Natanz reactor( The main facility of the country’s uranium enrichment program)After President Rohani opened a new centrifuge. This attack not the first on this reactor but there is another one in may last year, stoxint virus for computers also destroyed Centrifuges of the Natnins facility, and some believe that the new attack is similar to the Russian cyber attack on Ukrainian power plants at the end of 2015. The Russian used a malware called Trisis or triton to disable (ICS) program, so how will this attack affect the Iranian position and the nature of the talks in Vienna?
It is better to participate in negotiations when you armed than when you unarmed, and may be under cyber attacks at any time. This is the case with Iranian negotiators in the current talks in Vienna. Some people believe that the Natanz attack cannot affect the ongoing negotiations, not just for Iran, but for all parties, because it is very likely that an unannounced agreement has been reached between the parties that they not expose the talks to any external influence may weaken the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JCPOA) , especially Europeans want these talks to success under their good relations with American government in jo Biden’s era, as well as the Iranian desire to end the deal and lifting of the sanctions that affect the Iranian deal, and destabilized the legitimacy of political regime. Minister of foreign affairs emphasized that they will not fall in the trap of the Israelis , referring to the results of lift penalties talks in spite of Israel’s desire to undermine the talks project and not return to the nuclear deal, through recent Israel’s targeting to Iranian ships with the beginning of the talks, A desire controlled by undermining current United states talks to end the( JCPOA), this worries Biden administration and increasing the differences between two governments ( Israeli and American) in looking at their interests , Israel believes that there is no development in Israeli- Iranian relations.
Finally, Israeli attacks may undermine or affect Iranian negotiation capacity on the ongoing talks in Vienna , but it will not affect on the future of the talks and the nuclear deal, especially in light of all parties great desire reaching comprehensive agreement , but there are many question about Israeli desire and American will in this agreement ;Is Israel wants (5+1+1)agreement or doesn’t want any Iranian agreement? Will this desire be under the recent sentiments of the US president and the ruling party and may cancel the agreement after four years if the Democratic American Administration is replaced by a Republican Administration?, or this agreement will be under stricter legal safeguards? Can Israel stand against the United States or the attacks and Israel’s opposition to talks and the agreement is just amplification of Israel’s role?
