October / 2024
An article written and analyzed By
Prof. Dr. Hemad Jassim Mohammed
Head of Crisis Management Department
Center for Strategic Studies/University of Karbala
Translated By.
Assistant Lecturer Atheer Makki Al-Shammary
Atheer.m@uokerbala.edu.iq
The beginnings of the Iranian nuclear program were during the reign of the Shah (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi) in the sixties of the last century, through contracts with European companies and with the approval of the United States of America, but it was stopped in 1979 after the success of the Iranian revolution and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran resumed work on the nuclear program after the end of the Iran-Iraq war. After the Federal Republic of Germany refused to complete the Bushehr nuclear plant, which had begun operating in 1974, Iran resorted to cooperation with Russia, China, and Pakistan. Although the nuclear program dates back to the era of the Shah and is surrounded by secrecy and mystery and that it was designed for peaceful purposes and to produce electricity, according to statements by Iranian officials, the nuclear program is still shrouded in mystery due to the large number of centrifuges used in uranium enrichment and the spread of Iranian nuclear reactors in more than one place and in secret fortified places. Despite all that Iran has been declaring that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, producing electricity, and other therapeutic purposes, and the statements of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) and his prohibition of the use of nuclear weapons, the current reality on the ground gives several indicators that may make Iran reconsider its nuclear doctrine, including:
1. The events of the war in Gaza after October 7, 2023, and the tragic events that followed, and the Zionist entity committing numerous massacres against the people of Gaza, which reached the point of preventing the arrival of food, water, and medicine, and even affected health institutions, in an atmosphere of Arab and international silence, and even the standing of some Arab countries, the United States, and European countries with the Zionist entity, constituted an alarm bell for Iran and other countries in the region to seek to build unconventional military capabilities.
2. The assassinations that targeted senior officials in Iran and abroad, such as the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of the Hamas movement in Tehran on July 31, 2024, and a number of Revolutionary Guard leaders in Syria, and the threat to target Iranian officials and the threat of military strikes on Iranian nuclear and oil facilities; these Zionist threats are carried out in cooperation with the United States of America and the use of American bases in the region.
3. The United States and a number of European countries stand with the Zionist entity with all their strength, supply it with various weapons, and declare their protection of the Zionist entity, as well as the interventions of the United States of America in the region and the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan, which are all indicators of the importance of building a deterrent military force in Iran.
4. The large-scale attack launched by the Zionist forces on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, the commission of numerous massacres, the assassinations of the Secretary-General of the party (Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah), and a number of leaders in the party, and the warnings to evacuate southern Lebanon—these Zionist movements in Lebanon would not have taken place had the Zionist entity not received the green light from the United States of America. The attack of the occupying entity on southern Lebanon was an alarm bell for Iran that it is the main target and that it must defend its allies by building a deterrent military force.
5. Building a military force capable of confronting dangers has become a necessity and a requirement in most countries of the region in order to confront the Zionist-American threats. There have been trends within Iran calling for changing Iran’s nuclear doctrine to confront what they called the American-Zionist threats against their country. (39) representatives submitted a letter to the Supreme National Security Council, calling for a review of Iran’s nuclear dogma.
In conclusion
In spite of American interventions, the violation of countries, the weakness of international law, and the failure to deter the Zionist aggression against the Palestinian people and the countries of the region are among the reasons that may push Iran to change its nuclear doctrine and build an unconventional force to deter any aggression against it, the current reality indicates that Iran may not take such a step, because building a military nuclear force requires advanced technologies and cooperation from other countries, such as Russia or China, which Iran may not obtain at present, because although things seem tense between the United States, Russia, and China, the tension has not reached the point of armed conflict or collision, but rather there are diplomatic channels between them. Nuclear power also requires huge sums of money, at a time when Iran is suffering from severe American sanctions, and a nuclear Iran is not in the interest of even its allies, such as Russia, which fears the impact of this on its long-term strategic security, in addition to the fact that Iran’s nuclear armament will open the region to an unconventional arms race, the consequences of which may not be good for the region and the world. Finally, the United States, despite its declared hostility to the Iranian regime, is currently pushing matters towards calm with Iran, away from direct confrontation, and is even pressuring the Zionist entity not to escalate with Iran so that the Iranians do not have an excuse to build an unconventional force. In the foreseeable or distant future, it cannot be ruled out that Iran will change its nuclear doctrine, especially if the Zionist enemy expands the war to Syria or Iraq, and arming itself with unconventional weapons depends on the strength of the war’s expansion and its range in the region.
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