May 2018
Translated by: Assistant Lecturer. Hussain B Abdulameer
Late on Friday evening, May 18, the Independent High Electoral Commission declared the final results of the parliamentary elections that happened on the twelfth of May. The election results shows that there are a real mobility going on the Iraqi arena which touch the balance of power, political thinking and the democratic experiment.
Connotations cannot be condoned
Regarding to internal balance of power, the election results showed an obvious decline for some of the major political forces, chiefly Islamic Dawa party which has led the political landscape since 2003, this party has face a significant decrease on popular support, especially among its main influence areas in central and south of Iraq, as its representative blocks fell into the third and fourth place in the ranking of results, and this is a unique phenomenon in a country where the ruler parties used to lead the results, while the election results showed increasing popular support for the Sadrist movement and its leader “Mr. Muqtada al-Sadr” through (Sairun) block who waded the elections in an alliance with several civil and liberal forces to occupy the first rank in the ladder of winners.
The election results has caused a painful loss to many of the figures who have dominated the political landscape since the fall of the Baath regime, some of them have left power, others are on their way to leave or are in the transition phase prior to this step. Despite the fact that the main blocs and traditional leaders remain at the forefront of the leadership at present, but there is a new blood pumped by the elections to the political process which will have its impact on the political decision within their blocks, and the managing of state institutions, and may have a full leadership in the 2022 parliamentary elections.
Regarding to political thinking, the elections reflected a significant growth of Iraqi nationalism at the expense of the other sub-identities of the Iraqi voter who is no longer attracted by sectarian and tribal discourse. The forces that have tried to feed this discourse have lost their public support to the forces that have left their sectarian and tribal trenches, except of the – Kurds voter- who is still somewhat a prisoners of a traditional ethnic discourse fueled by parties that prevent to liberate their audience from that prison for several reasons.
The mounting Iraqi national identity in this elections after a painful period of devastating sectarian rhetoric is a good indicator and healthy state will have impressive results to promote confidence among Iraqis, and developing a various forms of peaceful coexistence among them. One of the important indicators of the mounting of Iraqi nationalism is the Iraqi voter’s distaste for any political force that has foreign agenda or it is a part of foreign agenda. Therefore, some Iraqi politicians have repeatedly reiterated the importance of supporting the “decision” to be an “Iraqi decision” or they insisting on the “independence” of Iraqi decision, and it can be said that the slogan of “Iraq first” will be the only slogan that will won the Iraqi confidence at this period, which will let the coming government to be obliged to respect and work on that slogan within its government program for the next four years.
On the other hand, the elections showed a decrease in the interest of the Iraqi voter in the issue of security, signifying emancipation from fear resulting from the deteriorating security situation, while escalating his claim to address the services and tackling corruption and end the poor economic situation … As priorities shared by all Iraqis. As religious discourse abated in the electoral competition, to the benefit of more liberal civil discourse and pragmatic in nation-building and the rule of law, yes it is still in its infancy but its next effects cannot be condoned, And need a deep meditation and verbose thinking, to determine a new and more positive relationship, which binds religion to the state in a way that does not affect the sanctity of religion and does not exceed the sovereignty of the state.
And finally, regarding to the democratic experiment, this elections represent an advanced step in the path of maturation of Iraqi democracy, for many reasons, including: despite the intersection of positions among the political forces and the great difference among them, but they chose the common democratic instruments in breaking each other’s opponents wills, which mean that they all have accepted the election as a way of imposing presence, this choice has succeeded in achieving important results on the ground, and the growing conviction of the political forces and their electorate that the elections as a means of punishing undesirable opponents or politicians, which will increase the democracy of Iraq firmly and move away from the scenario of authoritarian return again.
There are those who talk about the decline in voter turnout in this election, and regard it as a negative indicator which indicating the weakness of democracy, and they may forget that democracy since the time of Athens to the present doesn’t getting its strength from the number of voters who vote, but the democracy get it strength as it is the only appropriate option for the rotation of power and punish the unwanted rulers, Of course, as the size of popular participation widened, the regime was closer to the real democracy meaning, but this is not its only strength condition, from one hand. On the other hand, this election is the first in Iraq since 2003 without the voter being obsessed with fear. All the previous elections the fearful were guide the electorate, such as the fear of foreign occupiers, and fear of a sectarian or ethnic enemy, so the high rates of participation are often deceptive, governed by the culture of conflict and pandering to the collective mind in a society suffering the tension and uncertainty toward its social structure, which was not present in the recent elections, who participated in this election was free to express his opinion and his target was to change through the ballot box, and who doesn’t participated also was free to refrain, so the voter was believe that by non-voting he punish the unliked political forces, which he criticizes their performance and depriving them from his voice.
Participation in this election was a qualitative participation for a people who began to learn how to stand and facing the rulers to assure them that they are the real owner of power and they are no longer willing to bow for rulers again. This is remarkable for a society that has only experienced the democracy for only 15 years. If the awareness of people increasing more, we can see the future of a unique Iraqi experience in democracy that will leave its impact on the entire Middle East.
Risk in the way
But all these positive connotations in the recent election doesn’t mean the absence of “black holes” pose real risks to Iraq’s democratic experience, these risks are highlighted by: the lack of full transparency in the electoral process by the Independent High Electoral Commission for elections, the election has witnessed many criticisms from several candidates and political forces, and of all components, some of criticisms are justified and not just a reaction resulting from the loss, so that requiring to be handled in a professional manner of high performance, the arbitrariness have not to be at the expense of the electoral process confidence, the democracy can only take root through conviction and acceptance of winners and losers by the results of the ballot boxes, and the ignore of such complaints may lead to reject the democratic choice for those who have the ambition to engage in politics, and this is a serious risk cannot be underestimated, whatever the reasons.
The other matter is that it is necessary to take into account the constitutional provisions when forming the next Iraqi government. Our regime is parliamentary, so one of the axioms of this regime is that there are political forces managing the executive authority represented by the largest political bloc, and other forces that take the opposition in the legislative authority to practicing an effective oversight and accountability for the executive authority. But, letting all political forces to go again to form a government under what so-called “government of national partnership”, that makes all the parties are involved in the executive authority, then, this means a repeat of the of an unfair quotas and the distribution the power as a spoils among the political forces, the result will be spread of the common corruption, the disruption of government programs, abolish the role of oversight and accountability in the State organs, and the expansion of the insurgency gap and distrust between the government and its people, leaving disastrous consequences for the future of the entire regime and the democratic experiment in Iraq.
In addition, one of the most serious threats facing Iraq is the continued expansion of foreign –regional and international- influence and interests at the expense of the Iraq’s sovereignty and interests. Foreign intervention has been one of the destructive causes of the state of Iraq in recent years. And time has come to stop that foreign intervention, and building Iraqi-regional-international relations based on positive neutrality and mutual interests, with obvious focus in favor of Iraq comparing with others, especially with the entry of the Middle East into a new period of escalation and tension as a result of strained relations among Washington and Tehran, after Washington withdraw from Iran’s nuclear agreement, and after the very aggressive speech by US Secretary of State “Mike Pompeo” on Monday, May 21, which he outlined Washington’s new strategy toward Tehran that it is based on “imposing the most severe forms of sanctions, and his government will track the Iranian agents and their proxies from the “Hezbollah” all over the world and will crush them”. And the Iranian Foreign Ministry quickly responded by saying that: we will continue our policies by countering the Washington schemes and its allies.”
This regional reality requires from Iraqi decision-maker in the next government to practicing the utmost caution in our foreign policy, and so, Iraq should not remain paying the price of the others conflicts at the expense of its people and its wealth and national sovereignty. The involvement in the escalating regional conflicts in the vicinity of Iraq is no longer a valid option. Particularly since the Iraqis proved through the last election they are capable of making their future that they like, so they have to take the lead firmly to make it a better future.
