Author: Assistant Lecturer. Methaq.M.Al-Issawi
Center for strategic studies/ Political Studies Department
Translated by: Hiba Abbas Mohammed Ali
Reviewed by: Assistant Lecturer. Hussain B Abdulameer
May 2018
After the High Electoral Commission declared the results of the Iraqi elections, the Iraqi people looks forward to the political mobility which will be conducted by the Iraqi political forces who winning in the elections in order to formally declare their alliance and then prepare for the process of forming the Iraqi government despite the many political challenges which will face the process of forming the next Iraqi government. These challenges are multiplied by the multiplicity of political nature of the Iraqi political forces and parties that won the elections and the differences of their political orientation, ideological composition, internal affiliation and political thinking. These challenges can be summarized in three forms, as follows:
First: The Internal challenge/ this challenge comes as a natural result for what the Iraqi political arena witness since 2003, such as the tension and the political instability and the absence of the national project on the programs of Iraqi political parties and forces, and a natural result of the sectarian and ethnic quotas policy and the party consensus policy in the process of forming the former Iraqi governments .The difficulty of this challenge are growing with the convergence of the political forces results that obtained the top three positions, the absence of any block on an overwhelming election victory than its peers, will humper the process of forming government, this is on one hand, and on the other the winning political blocs in the first positions are different in directions and also in the nature of political thinking, (Sairun) block which is supported by the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, is completely different from the trends and nature of (al-Fath) electoral block, as well as the difference in some parts with the (al-Naser) bloc led by the current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi; but it’s somewhat compatible with some small political forces like (al-Hikma) movement that led by Mr. Ammar al-Hakim and (al-Wataniya) bloc led by Mr. Allawi, as well as some other Sunni blocs. These differences and implicit consensus would pose a major challenge to the process of forming the next Iraqi government.
Second: The Regional challenge / Which is one of the most complex challenges, and maybe the main obstacle to the process of forming the next Iraqi government, The primary complexity of the internal challenge stems from the hidden challenges, especially with the regional extension and the ideological and political association of some Iraqi political forces, the Iranian efforts and their political interventions in the process of forming the Iraqi government come from it’s influence on some Shiite political forces and its attempt to collect the Shiite house in one alliance at the top of these challenges, Especially as some of the political forces that compatibility “Iran” views has got a good number of seats at the next Iraqi parliament. Moreover, this challenge not only reflects the internal differences with the regional countries, but also reflects the regional differ between “Riyadh” and “Tehran” towards Iraq and the region, As well as the “Tehran” differ with the “U.S”. Like Iran as it has an influence on some Shiite political forces, Saudi Arabia also has its influence on some Sunni political forces (maybe less). So this would complicate the formation of the Iraqi government or perhaps contribute to the birth of a weak Iraqi government do not different from its predecessors.
Third: The international challenge / This challenge is no less important than the two previous challenges, perhaps the most complex and influential on the Iraqi political scene, especially with the escalation of the political and media confrontation between Iran and the U.S. after the U.S. sanctions on Tehran ,and the withdrawal from of the nuclear agreement from the American side and the policy of Trump’s administration against Tehran. The break of the agreement and the tightening of US sanctions on Iran and Tehran is moving ahead with its missile project and its own role in the region, will have a major role in the complexity of the Iraqi political scene and the process of forming the Iraqi new government between Tehran and Washington, Iran wants a unified Shiite bloc or a prime minister shares who has a view away from American attitudes, at the same time, the United States, which toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime and spent billions in its war on Iraq, is well aware that its loss of Iraq to Iran means its loss the region in general, and therefore do not want to take steps back, especially with the winning of (Sairun) and (al-Naser) blocks in the first positions, even if the (Sairun) is contrary to the American political trends on the ground but its internal orientations are national, and far away than Iranian influence. Thus, Washington may be satisfied with the signals and directions from behind the scenes of political forces leaders, especially with (al-Naser) and (al-Wataniya) block, as well as some small Sunni political forces, which would become the balance point in the process of the next political alliances to form the new Iraqi government.
Therefore, it is clear that the common denominator of all challenges is the regional challenge of the Iranian role in Iraq and its regional and international conflict with Saudi Arabia and the U.S, both America and Iran are trying to influence the process of forming the next government. However, there is a great political space that the Iraqi political forces can agree on, and limits the negative influence of the regional and international roles. Yes, there will be an influence, but this influence should not exceed the national borders and the supreme interest of the Iraqi state and the Iraqi people, and it must remind confined to the internal interest of Iraq and not to foreign interests.
So, will we see in the near future the process of forming an Iraqi government that takes the Iraqi National interests into consideration Or we will be in front of a scenario that similar to the previous scenarios of formation the former Iraqi governments?
