prof. Dr. Samer Muayad Abdul Latif Director of the Center for Strategic Studies
Reviewed by : Translator. Hiba Abbas Mohammed
The popular movement in Iraq at the beginning of October of this year was not a transient and repeating event for scenes accustomed to the Iraqi street since 2003, as the area of popular anger has expanded in this time to include the capital Baghdad and most of the southern governorates, as it has extended in its temporal range to continue for more than two months Since its first launch. With the public insistence on the reform, the ceiling of demands rose to reach the basis of the political regime and its tools and all authoritarian institutions, and even by calculating the cost of the confrontation between the demonstrators and the government and its outcome, it was very expensive and bloody compared to its predecessors, as it killed the hundreds of demonstrators. It did not stop at the limits of the resignation of the government of Mr. Adel Abdul-Mahdi, but rather demanded with the dissolution of the parliament and the correction of the the structure and path of the entire political regime .
The resignation of the Prime Minister did not inhabit the flames of the burning Iraqi street, but it was a rest from confrontational rounds as it was a gate for new crisis in choosing a successor for the resigned prime minister, This new crisis exceeds the limits of the text of Article (76) of the Iraqi constitution, which entrusts the President of the Republic with the task of assigning the candidate of the most numerous bloc in the parliament to form a government within fifteen days at maximum period, to stand at the barrier of agreement on a Character that is acceptable to the political blocs and the masses of protesters at the same time. Contrary to previous times, the politicians ’accounts during their choosing for the person who will be the prime minister are no longer restricted by their electoral gains or by the level of external satisfaction with the chosen character, regardless of popular will. Rather, the latter became the decisive variable for the choice equation that the rising Iraqi street subjected to difficult conditions that are attainable by the accounts of the power parties. in the forefront, The condition for complete independence from the political blocs, competence, integrity, and pure national affiliation, and not to occupy any previous political position in Parliament and the central or local government. Indeed, the plight of the political blocs in choosing the prime minister stems from various sources and pressures, not less than fifteen days set by the parliament, and by overcoming them, the President of the Republic according to the third paragraph of Article (76) will choose another candidate other than the most numerous candidate, It is an opportunity for the President of the Republic to invest the mass weight in overcoming the bloc’s objection to any candidate which is presented by the President and has a popular acceptance, and even with the exclusion of this possibility, if the constitutionally period prescribed without choosing a candidate for the Presidency of the Council of Ministers will open the door for the application of Article (81) that enables the President to replace the Prime Minister until choosing one within fifteen days.
With the blocks stay away from the traditional accounts in choosing the Prime Minister and forming a government in this time as well as the high hustle of the iraqi street, many blocks and veteran personalities moved away from embarking on the adventure of nominating an alternative to the prime minister, due to the difficulty of the tasks entrusted to to him within less than the standard time , due to the difficulty of the tasks entrusted to him within less time than the standard, with a high possibility for burning its paper, popularly and politically, as well as the fact that these blocs tend to choose the truly independent personality that is close to the masses of the demonstrators in any way means directing a harsh blow to its influence by the independent government based on the support and blessing of the people and the international forces that are waiting for it, But the selection of the candidate from the political class means the growing popular resentment, continuation of the crisis, and its aggravation to levels that cannot be controlled or predicted. The most correct analysis of the positions and orientations of the political blocs is their tendency and agreement to a Close personality to its sphere of influence, have a degree of independence, popular acceptance , good reputation, and the ability to stand in the middle of the dividing line in the circle of conflict of partisan, regional, and international interests in Iraq.
The crisis of choosing the person of the Prime Minister will be only the beginning of the path to other crises that may be more complicated by calculations of reality that is charged with visions, contradictory interests, mistakes and accumulated and deferred problems from previous administrations, the first of which is the crisis of choosing the cabinet, which will be an arena for the conflict between independence supporters and reassuring the burning street on the part and followers Quotations that are far from the popular flame circle, and those who seek to fish with murky water and settle old accounts on the opposite side. Nevertheless, it is more likely that the parties will try to keep the cabinet sticks from the center, by suggesting independence in choosing the candidates while maintaining a margin of quotas in favor of other blocs whose areas have not been exposed to the fire of the popular uprising.
As for the other crisis, its source is the difficult balance between the remaining demands of the demonstrators and the dictates of the political blocs, especially in the area of accountability for the killers of the demonstrators, and the corrupt, and the liquidation of the inheritance of quotas and the settlement of other outstanding files, as this new government will face a crisis of budget between the interests and directions of opposing international and regional powers on the Iraqi scene, In addition to the necessity of the coming government being subjected to pressure of time and the masses regarding preparing for early elections, which is not resolved by the political blocs, which will open the door in the near future to enter Iraq again in a new cycle of popular movement guy Calculated the consequences ..
By: prof. Dr. Samer Muayad Abdul Latif Director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Karbala
The popular movement in Iraq at the beginning of October of this year was not a transient and repeating event for scenes accustomed to the Iraqi street since 2003, as the area of populer anger has expanded in this time to include the capital Baghdad and most of the southern governorates, as it has extended in its temporal range to continue for more than two months Since its first launch. With the public insistence on the reform, the ceiling of demands rose to reach the basis of the political regime and its tools and all authoritarian institutions, and even by calculating the cost of the confrontation between the demonstrators and the government and its outcome, it was very expensive and bloody compared to its predecessors, as it killed the hundreds of demonstrators. It did not stop at the limits of the resignation of the government of Mr. Adel Abdul-Mahdi, but rather demanded that the parliament be dissolved and the structure and path of the entire political regime be corrected. The resignation of the Prime Minister did not inhabit the flames of the burning Iraqi street. This new crisis exceeds the limits of the text of Article (76) of the Iraqi constitution, which entrusts the President of the Republic with the task of assigning the candidate of the most numerous bloc in the House of Representatives to form a government within fifteen days at maximum period, to stand at the barrier of agreement on a Character that is acceptable to the political blocs and the masses of protesters at the same time. Contrary to previous times, the politicians ’accounts during their choosing for the person who will be the prime minister are no longer restricted by their electoral gains or by the level of external satisfaction with the chosen character, regardless of popular will. Rather, the latter became the decisive variable for the choice equation that the rising Iraqi street subjected to difficult conditions that are attainable by the accounts of the power parties. in the forefront, The condition for complete independence from the political blocs, competence, integrity, and pure national affiliation, and not to occupy any previous political position in Parliament and the central or local government. Indeed, the plight of the political blocs in choosing the prime minister stems from various sources and pressures, not the least of which is the time limit set by the constitution to resolve the selection within fifteen days, and by overcoming them, the President of the Republic according to the third paragraph of Article (76) will choose another candidate other than the most numerous candidate. It is an opportunity for the President of the Republic to invest the mass weight in overcoming the bloc’s objection to any candidate which is presented by the President and which is accepted by popular acceptance, and even with the exclusion of this possibility, if the constitutionally period prescribed without choosing a candidate for the Presidency of the Council of Ministers will open the door for the application of Article (81) that enables the President of the public Its solutions replace Prime Minister until a replacement within a period of fifteen days. With the blocks away from the traditional accounts in choosing a person for the Prime Minister and forming a government in this time and the hustle and bustle of the Iraqi street, many blocks and veteran personalities moved away from embarking on the adventure of nominating an alternative to the prime minister, due to the difficulty of the tasks entrusted to him within less time than the standard, with a high possibility for burning its paper, popularly and politically, besides, the fact that these blocs tend to choose the truly independent personality that is close to the masses of the demonstrators in any way means directing a harsh blow to its influence by the independent government based on the support and blessing of the people and the international forces that are waiting for it. As for the selection of the candidate from within the political class, this means the growing popular resentment, the continuation of the crisis, and its aggravation to levels that cannot be controlled or predicted. The most correct analysis of the positions and orientations of the political blocs is their tendency and agreement to a personality close to its sphere of influence, to have a degree of independence, popular acceptability, and good reputation, and the ability to stand in the middle of the dividing line in the circle of conflict of partisan, regional, and international interests in Iraq. The crisis of choosing the person of the Prime Minister will be only the beginning of the path to other crises that may be more complicated by calculations of reality that is charged with visions, contradictory interests, mistakes and accumulated and deferred problems from previous administrations, the first of which is the crisis of choosing the cabinet, which will be an arena for the conflict between independence supporters and reassuring the burning street on the part and followers Quotations that are far from the popular flame circle, and those who seek to fish with murky water and settle old accounts on the opposite side. Nevertheless, it is more likely that the parties will try to keep the cabinet sticks from the center, by suggesting independence in choosing the candidates while maintaining a margin of quotas in favor of other blocs whose areas have not been exposed to the fire of the popular uprising. As for the other crisis, its source is the difficult balance between the demands of the remaining demonstrators and the dictates of the political blocs, especially in the area of accountability for the killers of the demonstrators, and the corrupt, and the liquidation of the inheritance of quotas and the settlement of other outstanding files, as this new government will face a crisis of balance between the interests and directions of opposing international and regional powers on the Iraqi scene, In addition to the necessity of the coming government being subjected to pressure of time and the masses regarding preparing for early elections, which is not resolved by the political blocs, which will open the door in the near future to enter Iraq again in a new cycle of popular movement guy Calculated the consequences ..
