Writer: Prof. Dr. Khalid Al-Ardawi
Researcher in the center for strategic studies/ Political Studies Department .
Centerfor strategic studies Translated by: Hiba A.Mohammed
For Iraq’s government and people the coming months will not be bright and there will be dangerous political and social implications than the health and economic consequences. (COVID 19) like a devastating earthquake that hit the whole world, causing extensive damage and the real dangerous is it’s Politically, economically, socially, and culturally impact , Its final features depends on the duration of the Corona crisis and the number of injured and dead people. The spreed of the virus and it’s dangerous have been forced countries to rethinking about it’s medical, cultural and social structure as well as the effectiveness of their governments, international relations and their economic policies. Beyond the expectations after Coronavirus, the important thing is it’s impact of our citizen and government, so it happened when the country is in it’s worst time , on the level of the government’s effectiveness and the cohesion of its social base, as well as the deterioration of the economic situation which added new serious and complicated problems. The International Monetary fund’s forecast suggests that the COVID-19 -cause a largest downturn in the global economy since the Great Depression of 1929, The oil prices collapsed and are expected to be no more than $45 in the next two years, these indicators represent an unexpected shock for Iraq because it’s budget depends on 90% of it’s oil exports, so the government was counting on the rising of oil prices to calm the high-rise public street; by absorbing unemployment, activating the investment environment, and addressing problems of poverty Most of the Iraqi hopes were disappointed with the low of oil prices, which means that the government unable to find solutions to the people who suffering and feel angry towards their government , especially with more than ten million Iraqis below the poverty line, with a near-total loss of trust between the government and the people. This has been exacerbated in recent months by the conflicts between political forces and the horrific intersection of regional and international interests that have taken place on Iraqi territory as a forum for conflict and for the liquidation of accounts. The political class has been unable to communicate with the people and find the way to solve their problems…a matter that everyone saw as a matter of bluntness in the recent popular protests (since October 1, 2019) and the question of forming the new government. According to this complicated reality and the serious economic consequences of COVID 19, For Iraq’s government and people the coming months will not be bright and there will be dangerous political and social implications than the health and economic consequences, or we will see a high level of political conflict Between a self-divided political class, unwilling to adapt to its own reality and accept its difficult solutions, and between them and the people. the conflict will intensify with the Government’s inability to fulfill its responsibility to alleviate the suffering of the people. As well as an increase in social violence such as family breakdown, common and organized crime, drug abuse, suicide,intergenerational conflicts,etc. The Government’s efforts to combat corruption will not work , because corrupt forces and forces parallel to the State will become more active in some way, because under such circumstances, officials do not have the firm will and ability to crack down on corrupt elements and hold them accountable for their crimes. Does this mean that Coronavirus has brought the country to the brink and ended the political process that has lost its viability? This will depend on the ability of the next government, It will lead iraq to the abyss or will be a historical government able to cross the crisis, as Chinese say” Each crisis represents an opportunity” so Covid-19 maybe a good chance for the next government to build a country on a new basis and policies that bring back prestige to it if there is someone knows how to turn crisis to opportunities.
